Smart money adds to extreme soybean shorts

1/8 Oil flat

QM (CL) futures bounced yesterday and are flat today. It is apparently due to the US inventory decreasing. Phil pointed this out in his dec newsletter; he showed how 300000 contracts on nymex had dissapeared. This is where the smart money cashes out and the bag holders come in (unless there is fundamental change).
I closed out my RIG puts for 30% gain while my TZA calls netted me 0%.
Definitely going to be a short term bull until oil picks a trend (which, as i said before, is the only major market catalyst at the moment).
I have been polishing rules to help me stay profitable:
  1. stop FOREX @ 7:30. This is because I am consistently losing my trades after this time, around 70-90% loss rate. Instead of changing my strategy mid day it is probably more profitable to just trade half the day.
  2. No overnight weekly options. Not only do they lose huge value overnight from time decay, but this is also pure gambling since short term volatility is unknown. Too many ways to lose.
  3. Ask risk manager. I have gone through one blowout, so now I use trailing stops and ask my friend if I am thinking of opening a large position.
  4. Patience, wait. Bored? Do something else. Boredom/tired mistakes cost a lot.
If I slip up I will end up paying for it, these rules have redundancies and fail safes to catch me when I inevitably do.
I now know why some guys at prop shops came in for 30min-1hour then left. They were perfect for that amount of time and any more would let in mistakes.
I should look into making an algo of myself.
submitted by Asiansupermarket to Pennystocktrading [link] [comments]

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